HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
50.5%
千代翔馬 (R=1551)
vs
49.5%
正代 (R=1547)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (11 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (千代翔馬) | 39.0% |
| Actual win rate | 27.3% |
| Delta | -11.7pt |
Positive = 千代翔馬 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 千代翔馬 | 正代 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1714 (2025-01) | 1889 (2020-09) |
| Career bouts | 1,222 | 1,048 |
| Wins | 601 | 532 |
| Losses | 599 | 494 |
| Win rate | 50.1% | 52.3% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #14 | Maegashira #11 |
| Active period | 2009-07 〜 2026-09 | 2014-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (11)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 千代翔馬 | vs | 正代 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-09 | 15 | 23% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2017-11 | 2 | 38% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-01 | 12 | 39% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-05 | 5 | 39% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-07 | 13 | 33% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2021-09 | 9 | 25% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2022-01 | 15 | 27% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-05 | 11 | 58% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-07 | 13 | 53% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-05 | 4 | 49% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-09 | 15 | 45% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.