HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
53.8%
輝 (R=1326)
vs
46.2%
栃大海 (R=1299)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (5 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (輝) | 54.1% |
| Actual win rate | 60.0% |
| Delta | 5.9pt |
Positive = 輝 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 輝 | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1516 (2010-05) | 1338 (2018-03) |
| Career bouts | 1,231 | 455 |
| Wins | 600 | 238 |
| Losses | 621 | 210 |
| Win rate | 49.5% | 53.0% |
| Current rank | Juryo #11 | Juryo #14 |
| Active period | 2010-03 〜 2026-07 | 2017-11 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (5)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 輝 | vs | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05 | 15 | 57% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-03 | 8 | 55% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-09 | 2 | 53% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-11 | 10 | 53% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 9 | 53% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.