HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
52.9%
明生 (R=1476)
vs
47.1%
栃大海 (R=1455)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (明生) | 52.7% |
| Actual win rate | 33.3% |
| Delta | -19.4pt |
Positive = 明生 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 明生 | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1768 (2021-07) | 1564 (2025-03) |
| Career bouts | 1,095 | 473 |
| Wins | 540 | 246 |
| Losses | 531 | 221 |
| Win rate | 50.7% | 52.6% |
| Current rank | Juryo #13 | Juryo #14 |
| Active period | 2011-05 〜 2026-09 | 2017-11 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 明生 | vs | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | 3 | 54% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 12 | 57% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 3 | 48% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.