HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
63.8%
大栄翔 (R=1508)
vs
36.2%
正代 (R=1409)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (36 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (大栄翔) | 49.6% |
| Actual win rate | 69.4% |
| Delta | 19.9pt |
Positive = 大栄翔 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 大栄翔 | 正代 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1547 (2025-05) | 1607 (2014-05) |
| Career bouts | 1,178 | 1,030 |
| Wins | 628 | 528 |
| Losses | 519 | 479 |
| Win rate | 55.2% | 52.9% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #4 | Maegashira #6 |
| Active period | 2012-01 〜 2026-07 | 2014-03 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (36)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 大栄翔 | vs | 正代 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03 | 11 | 27% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2017-11 | 6 | 33% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-03 | 15 | 34% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-05 | 2 | 36% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-07 | 11 | 41% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-01 | 11 | 47% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-03 | 6 | 43% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-07 | 10 | 44% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-09 | 9 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-11 | 4 | 40% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2021-01 | 3 | 42% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2021-03 | 9 | 44% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2021-05 | 3 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2021-07 | 2 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2021-09 | 10 | 43% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2021-11 | 1 | 45% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-01 | 3 | 45% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-03 | 1 | 47% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-05 | 3 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-07 | 6 | 51% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2022-09 | 8 | 49% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-11 | 9 | 51% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-01 | 2 | 52% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-03 | 5 | 55% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-05 | 4 | 56% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-07 | 1 | 58% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-09 | 2 | 59% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-11 | 6 | 59% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2024-01 | 4 | 60% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-09 | 5 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-11 | 5 | 60% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-01 | 3 | 62% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-09 | 2 | 68% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-11 | 12 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-03 | 15 | 65% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-07 | 9 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.



