HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
45.0%
正代 (R=1401)
vs
55.0%
阿炎 (R=1436)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (25 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (正代) | 51.0% |
| Actual win rate | 52.0% |
| Delta | 1.0pt |
Positive = 正代 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 正代 | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1607 (2014-05) | 1525 (2022-11) |
| Career bouts | 1,033 | 985 |
| Wins | 529 | 510 |
| Losses | 482 | 403 |
| Win rate | 52.8% | 56.1% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #6 | Maegashira #12 |
| Active period | 2014-03 〜 2026-07 | 2013-05 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (25)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 正代 | vs | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03 | 15 | 76% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2015-05 | 7 | 69% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2015-09 | 5 | 67% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-03 | 6 | 67% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-07 | 14 | 64% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-09 | 4 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-07 | 3 | 57% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-09 | 12 | 55% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-01 | 12 | 50% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-03 | 13 | 55% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-05 | 9 | 48% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-07 | 9 | 47% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-01 | 4 | 42% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-03 | 7 | 41% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-05 | 10 | 43% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-07 | 8 | 43% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-09 | 8 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-11 | 11 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2024-01 | 8 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2024-09 | 9 | 39% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-11 | 2 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-01 | 12 | 39% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-11 | 6 | 44% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-05 | 12 | 44% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 13 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.