HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
37.7%
正代 (R=1547)
vs
62.3%
阿炎 (R=1637)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (26 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (正代) | 46.8% |
| Actual win rate | 50.0% |
| Delta | 3.2pt |
Positive = 正代 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 正代 | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1889 (2020-09) | 1842 (2022-01) |
| Career bouts | 1,048 | 1,000 |
| Wins | 532 | 518 |
| Losses | 494 | 410 |
| Win rate | 52.3% | 56.1% |
| Current rank | Juryo #3 | Maegashira #12 |
| Active period | 2014-03 〜 2026-09 | 2013-05 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (26)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 正代 | vs | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-03 | 15 | 65% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2015-05 | 7 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2015-09 | 5 | 64% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-03 | 6 | 61% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-07 | 14 | 57% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-09 | 4 | 56% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-07 | 3 | 49% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-09 | 12 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-01 | 12 | 35% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-03 | 13 | 57% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-05 | 9 | 42% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2022-07 | 9 | 40% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-01 | 4 | 33% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-03 | 7 | 34% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-05 | 10 | 42% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-07 | 8 | 40% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-09 | 8 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-11 | 11 | 43% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2024-01 | 8 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2024-09 | 9 | 31% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-11 | 2 | 48% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-01 | 12 | 33% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-11 | 6 | 47% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-05 | 12 | 45% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 13 | 52% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 5 | 48% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.