HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
48.7%
湘南乃海 (R=1538)
vs
51.3%
正代 (R=1547)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (7 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (湘南乃海) | 46.0% |
| Actual win rate | 57.1% |
| Delta | 11.2pt |
Positive = 湘南乃海 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 湘南乃海 | 正代 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1692 (2023-07) | 1889 (2020-09) |
| Career bouts | 705 | 1,048 |
| Wins | 369 | 532 |
| Losses | 336 | 494 |
| Win rate | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #17 | Maegashira #11 |
| Active period | 2014-03 〜 2026-09 | 2014-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (7)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 湘南乃海 | vs | 正代 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09 | 12 | 47% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-01 | 12 | 43% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-03 | 14 | 43% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-05 | 1 | 49% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-09 | 3 | 52% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-05 | 15 | 40% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 49% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.