HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
69.1%
朝乃山 (R=1521)
vs
30.9%
千代翔馬 (R=1381)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (6 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (朝乃山) | 67.7% |
| Actual win rate | 100.0% |
| Delta | 32.3pt |
Positive = 朝乃山 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 朝乃山 | 千代翔馬 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1591 (2023-05) | 1411 (2025-03) |
| Career bouts | 799 | 1,204 |
| Wins | 424 | 594 |
| Losses | 205 | 587 |
| Win rate | 67.0% | 50.3% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #10 | Maegashira #10 |
| Active period | 2016-03 〜 2026-07 | 2009-07 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (6)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 朝乃山 | vs | 千代翔馬 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01 | 14 | 57% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-01 | 12 | 57% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-05 | 1 | 79% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-03 | 4 | 74% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-05 | 9 | 70% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 5 | 70% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.