HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
65.9%
朝乃山 (R=1753)
vs
34.1%
阿炎 (R=1637)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (18 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (朝乃山) | 55.2% |
| Actual win rate | 66.7% |
| Delta | 11.4pt |
Positive = 朝乃山 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 朝乃山 | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1903 (2020-07) | 1842 (2022-01) |
| Career bouts | 817 | 1,000 |
| Wins | 435 | 518 |
| Losses | 213 | 410 |
| Win rate | 66.7% | 56.1% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #1 | Maegashira #12 |
| Active period | 2016-03 〜 2026-09 | 2013-05 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (18)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 朝乃山 | vs | 阿炎 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-07 | 14 | 59% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-01 | 9 | 50% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2018-09 | 3 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2018-11 | 6 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-01 | 6 | 50% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-03 | 8 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-07 | 10 | 49% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-09 | 9 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-11 | 8 | 50% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-01 | 4 | 54% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-09 | 7 | 66% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-11 | 15 | 61% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-03 | 13 | 62% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-01 | 7 | 68% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-03 | 14 | 59% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-05 | 4 | 56% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-07 | 6 | 62% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-09 | 10 | 63% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.