HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
68.6%
朝乃山 (R=1521)
vs
31.4%
御嶽海 (R=1385)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (15 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (朝乃山) | 49.9% |
| Actual win rate | 60.0% |
| Delta | 10.1pt |
Positive = 朝乃山 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 朝乃山 | 御嶽海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1591 (2023-05) | 1572 (2022-03) |
| Career bouts | 799 | 1,001 |
| Wins | 424 | 527 |
| Losses | 205 | 451 |
| Win rate | 67.0% | 54.0% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #10 | Maegashira #11 |
| Active period | 2016-03 〜 2026-07 | 2015-03 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (15)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 朝乃山 | vs | 御嶽海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05 | 15 | 31% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-07 | 7 | 34% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2019-09 | 1 | 35% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2019-11 | 12 | 35% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-01 | 1 | 41% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2020-03 | 6 | 44% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-07 | 10 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2020-09 | 13 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2021-01 | 3 | 49% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2021-03 | 12 | 51% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2021-05 | 10 | 52% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-09 | 13 | 70% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-01 | 3 | 74% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-03 | 11 | 73% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 7 | 69% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.