HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
35.6%
朝乃山 (R=1753)
vs
64.4%
熱海富士 (R=1859)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (5 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (朝乃山) | 55.1% |
| Actual win rate | 80.0% |
| Delta | 24.9pt |
Positive = 朝乃山 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 朝乃山 | 熱海富士 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1903 (2020-07) | 1881 (2026-07) |
| Career bouts | 824 | 476 |
| Wins | 438 | 274 |
| Losses | 217 | 196 |
| Win rate | 66.5% | 58.3% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #1 | Sekiwake |
| Active period | 2016-03 〜 2026-09 | 2021-01 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (5)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 朝乃山 | vs | 熱海富士 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09 | 15 | 80% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-01 | 14 | 64% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-03 | 6 | 67% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 29% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-11 | 6 | 36% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.