HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
46.0%
對馬洋 (R=1414)
vs
54.0%
栃幸大 (R=1443)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (對馬洋) | 56.5% |
| Actual win rate | 33.3% |
| Delta | -23.2pt |
Positive = 對馬洋 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 對馬洋 | 栃幸大 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1541 (2023-01) | 1448 (2026-07) |
| Career bouts | 492 | 398 |
| Wins | 254 | 209 |
| Losses | 213 | 185 |
| Win rate | 54.4% | 53.0% |
| Current rank | Makushita #6 | Makushita #7 |
| Active period | 2016-07 〜 2026-09 | 2017-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 對馬洋 | vs | 栃幸大 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11 | 15 | 71% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-07 | 2 | 53% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-11 | 4 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.