HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
51.9%
栃幸大 (R=1443)
vs
48.1%
漣 (R=1429)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (5 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (栃幸大) | 57.4% |
| Actual win rate | 80.0% |
| Delta | 22.6pt |
Positive = 栃幸大 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 栃幸大 | 漣 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1448 (2026-07) | 1430 (2026-05) |
| Career bouts | 381 | 464 |
| Wins | 201 | 243 |
| Losses | 176 | 220 |
| Win rate | 53.3% | 52.4% |
| Current rank | Makushita #7 | Makushita #10 |
| Active period | 2017-03 〜 2026-09 | 2015-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (5)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 栃幸大 | vs | 漣 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09 | 14 | 62% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-07 | 1 | 70% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-07 | 13 | 59% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-03 | 8 | 51% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-05 | 15 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.