HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
58.1%
炎鵬 (R=1513)
vs
41.9%
栃大海 (R=1455)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (炎鵬) | 54.7% |
| Actual win rate | 100.0% |
| Delta | 45.3pt |
Positive = 炎鵬 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 炎鵬 | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1707 (2017-09) | 1564 (2025-03) |
| Career bouts | 650 | 473 |
| Wins | 308 | 246 |
| Losses | 259 | 221 |
| Win rate | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| Current rank | Juryo #9 | Juryo #14 |
| Active period | 2017-03 〜 2026-09 | 2017-11 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 炎鵬 | vs | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 1 | 55% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-07 | 4 | 55% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 55% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.