HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
41.9%
栃大海 (R=1455)
vs
58.1%
炎鵬 (R=1513)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (栃大海) | 45.3% |
| Actual win rate | 0.0% |
| Delta | -45.3pt |
Positive = 栃大海 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 栃大海 | 炎鵬 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1564 (2025-03) | 1707 (2017-09) |
| Career bouts | 473 | 650 |
| Wins | 246 | 308 |
| Losses | 221 | 259 |
| Win rate | 52.6% | 54.2% |
| Current rank | Makushita #3 | Juryo #10 |
| Active period | 2017-11 〜 2026-09 | 2017-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 栃大海 | vs | 炎鵬 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 1 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-07 | 4 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 13 | 45% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.