HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
54.4%
夢道鵬 (R=1474)
vs
45.6%
栃幸大 (R=1443)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (4 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (夢道鵬) | 45.6% |
| Actual win rate | 25.0% |
| Delta | -20.6pt |
Positive = 夢道鵬 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 夢道鵬 | 栃幸大 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1475 (2026-05) | 1448 (2026-07) |
| Career bouts | 274 | 381 |
| Wins | 143 | 201 |
| Losses | 121 | 176 |
| Win rate | 54.6% | 53.3% |
| Current rank | Makushita #6 | Makushita #3 |
| Active period | 2020-01 〜 2026-09 | 2017-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (4)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 夢道鵬 | vs | 栃幸大 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-09 | 6 | 52% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-03 | 3 | 42% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-05 | 15 | 42% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2023-07 | 6 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.