HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
47.8%
松木 (R=969)
vs
52.2%
旭大海 (R=984)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (松木) | 33.0% |
| Actual win rate | 66.7% |
| Delta | 33.7pt |
Positive = 松木 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 松木 | 旭大海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 969 (2026-09) | 987 (2026-05) |
| Career bouts | 259 | 217 |
| Wins | 115 | 109 |
| Losses | 128 | 107 |
| Win rate | 47.1% | 50.2% |
| Current rank | Jonidan #2 | Sandanme #79 |
| Active period | 2020-07 〜 2026-09 | 2021-05 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 松木 | vs | 旭大海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05 | 10 | 2% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2023-01 | 9 | 40% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2024-03 | 2 | 56% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.