HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
71.4%
蒼乃駿 (R=623)
vs
28.6%
天一 (R=461)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (3 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (蒼乃駿) | 66.5% |
| Actual win rate | 66.7% |
| Delta | 0.2pt |
Positive = 蒼乃駿 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 蒼乃駿 | 天一 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1144 (2021-05) | 1359 (2007-09) |
| Career bouts | 235 | 1,397 |
| Wins | 90 | 663 |
| Losses | 123 | 715 |
| Win rate | 42.6% | 48.2% |
| Current rank | Jonidan #96 | Jonidan #98 |
| Active period | 2021-05 〜 2026-09 | 1993-05 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (3)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 蒼乃駿 | vs | 天一 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07 | 8 | 57% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-01 | 3 | 71% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-11 | 7 | 71% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.