HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
53.9%
藤壮大 (R=1436)
vs
46.1%
光星竜 (R=1408)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (1 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (藤壮大) | 53.9% |
| Actual win rate | 0.0% |
| Delta | -53.9pt |
Positive = 藤壮大 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 藤壮大 | 光星竜 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1464 (2026-07) | 1408 (2026-09) |
| Career bouts | 108 | 66 |
| Wins | 64 | 43 |
| Losses | 44 | 18 |
| Win rate | 59.3% | 70.5% |
| Current rank | Makushita #12 | Makushita #15 |
| Active period | 2024-05 〜 2026-09 | 2025-05 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (1)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 藤壮大 | vs | 光星竜 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11 | 6 | 54% | ● | vs | ○ |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.