HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
42.2%
藤凌駕 (R=1466)
vs
57.8%
朝乃山 (R=1521)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (4 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (藤凌駕) | 34.0% |
| Actual win rate | 25.0% |
| Delta | -9.0pt |
Positive = 藤凌駕 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 藤凌駕 | 朝乃山 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1488 (2025-11) | 1591 (2023-05) |
| Career bouts | 100 | 799 |
| Wins | 67 | 424 |
| Losses | 32 | 205 |
| Win rate | 67.7% | 67.0% |
| Current rank | Maegashira #9 | Maegashira #10 |
| Active period | 2025-03 〜 2026-07 | 2016-03 〜 2026-07 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (4)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 藤凌駕 | vs | 朝乃山 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07 | 11 | 27% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2025-11 | 14 | 31% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-03 | 10 | 38% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-07 | 3 | 40% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.