HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
50.9%
光星竜 (R=1408)
vs
49.1%
小原 (R=1402)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (1 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (光星竜) | 45.8% |
| Actual win rate | 100.0% |
| Delta | 54.2pt |
Positive = 光星竜 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 光星竜 | 小原 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1408 (2026-09) | 1441 (2024-09) |
| Career bouts | 49 | 465 |
| Wins | 33 | 240 |
| Losses | 11 | 201 |
| Win rate | 75.0% | 54.2% |
| Current rank | Makushita #15 | Makushita #18 |
| Active period | 2025-05 〜 2026-09 | 2015-03 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (1)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 光星竜 | vs | 小原 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 8 | 46% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.