HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
59.4%
光星竜 (R=1248)
vs
40.6%
小原 (R=1181)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (1 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (光星竜) | 60.1% |
| Actual win rate | 100.0% |
| Delta | 39.9pt |
Positive = 光星竜 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 光星竜 | 小原 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1273 (2025-05) | 1199 (2015-05) |
| Career bouts | 49 | 465 |
| Wins | 33 | 240 |
| Losses | 11 | 201 |
| Win rate | 75.0% | 54.2% |
| Current rank | Makushita #31 | Makushita #29 |
| Active period | 2025-05 〜 2026-05 | 2015-03 〜 2026-05 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (1)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 光星竜 | vs | 小原 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 8 | 60% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.