HEAD-TO-HEAD
Head-to-Head Comparison
Career Head-to-Head
All career bouts, including juryo and below (broadcast tallies usually count makuuchi only).
Rating-based Forecast
Expected win rate (latest)
46.9%
錦木 (R=1434)
vs
53.1%
栃大海 (R=1455)
Glicko-2 expected score (opponent RD taken into account)
Forecast accuracy (7 bouts)
| Predicted win rate (錦木) | 46.3% |
| Actual win rate | 57.1% |
| Delta | 10.8pt |
Positive = 錦木 wins above rating expectation; negative = below.
Career Comparison
| Item | 錦木 | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|
| Peak rating | 1763 (2023-07) | 1564 (2025-03) |
| Career bouts | 1,400 | 477 |
| Wins | 673 | 247 |
| Losses | 718 | 224 |
| Win rate | 48.6% | 52.3% |
| Current rank | Makushita #2 | Makushita #3 |
| Active period | 2006-03 〜 2026-09 | 2017-11 〜 2026-09 |
Rating history (overlay)
Bout details (7)
| Basho | Day | Predicted | 錦木 | vs | 栃大海 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | 5 | 49% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-07 | 6 | 53% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2025-11 | 4 | 43% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-05 | 6 | 46% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-07 | 1 | 42% | ● | vs | ○ |
| 2026-09 | 5 | 44% | ○ | vs | ● |
| 2026-11 | 3 | 47% | ○ | vs | ● |
Predicted = expected score at the start of that tournament (causal). Highlighted rows = upsets vs prediction.