TORIKUMI
July Basho 2026 — Bouts
All-division matchups with rating-based win probabilities. Tap a bout for a head-to-head comparison.
DAY 12 REVIEW
Day 12 blew the race wide open. Aonishiki, seemingly cruising, was driven out in the sekiwake showdown by Kotoshoho for his second loss — and the chase pack pounced as one. The masterpiece belonged to Kirishima: facing Onosato, a man he had never beaten in ten career tries, he finally broke through at the eleventh attempt, rolling the yokozuna with his trademark tottari arm bar to keep his rope run alive. Takerufuji threw down Takayasu, Shishi beat Asanoyama with an underarm throw, and suddenly four men — Aonishiki, Kirishima, Takerufuji and Shishi — share the lead at ten wins and two losses: a sekiwake, an ozeki and two rank-and-filers, a leaderboard rarely seen in recent years. Kotoeiho, whose nine-game run lit up the middle days, was forced out by Atamifuji and dropped back. Kotozakura showed his pride with a pulling overarm throw of Hoshoryu, while Onosato slipped to an even record. Three days remain, and the Emperor's Cup is anyone's to take.
Makuuchi
20 bouts
朝白龍Maegashira #12+10寄り切り52%vs48%
一意Maegashira #15−8.2
朝紅龍Maegashira #16+8.3突き落とし55%vs45%
阿炎Maegashira #12−8.1
大青山Maegashira #16+9.3寄り切り57%vs43%
御嶽海Maegashira #11−7.5
朝乃山Maegashira #10−12下手投げ58%vs42%
獅司Maegashira #14+9.9
藤凌駕Maegashira #9+6.5突き落とし57%vs43%
錦富士Maegashira #13−8.4
阿武剋Maegashira #15−7.2叩き込み47%vs53%
翔猿Maegashira #9+9.7
尊富士Maegashira #13+10上手投げ37%vs63%
高安Maegashira #7−13
正代Maegashira #6−9.2寄り切り46%vs54%
金峰山Maegashira #14+9.1
宇良Maegashira #5−9.7寄り倒し47%vs53%
狼雅Maegashira #8+10
千代翔馬Maegashira #10+11下手投げ39%vs61%
欧勝馬Maegashira #5−9.9
大栄翔Maegashira #4+6.7叩き込み66%vs34%
藤青雲Maegashira #6−7.1
若元春Maegashira #8+9.6押し出し45%vs55%
一山本Maegashira #4−9.4
藤ノ川Maegashira #1+7.9掬い投げ55%vs45%
豪ノ山Maegashira #2−8.7
伯乃富士Maegashira #3−10押し出し59%vs41%
隆の勝Maegashira #1+9.1
義ノ富士Komusubi−11送り出し62%vs38%
平戸海Maegashira #3+12
美ノ海Maegashira #2+11押し出し54%vs46%
王鵬Komusubi−9.0
熱海富士Sekiwake+5.0寄り切り68%vs32%
琴栄峰Maegashira #7−6.9
安青錦Sekiwake−13押し出し73%vs27%
琴勝峰Sekiwake+12
豊昇龍Yokozuna−13上手出し投げ64%vs36%
琴櫻Ozeki+12
霧島Ozeki+8.2とったり59%vs41%
大の里Yokozuna−7.8
Win % = Glicko-2 expected score from each wrestler's latest rating. Shown for Juryo and above only — lower divisions have provisional ratings, so their predictions are unreliable. Bouts listed in fight order (main event last). Start times (~H:MM) are rough estimates based on the standard daily schedule and may shift with the day's pace. Green/red ± figures show the rating change from that bout — the bigger the upset, the bigger the number (provisional during the basho; new wrestlers can swing widely while their rating settles).