TORIKUMI
September Basho 2026 — Bouts
All-division matchups with rating-based win probabilities. Tap a bout for a head-to-head comparison.
DAY 1 REVIEW
Onosato opened as the lone yokozuna and got through, just: he failed to get his right arm inside at the tachiai, pulled — his bad habit — and only won with a leaping slap-down of komusubi Daieisho at the edge. It is his first opening-day win since January, and he led with the self-criticism: it had given him a scare and he would fix it for tomorrow. Kirishima, chasing yokozuna promotion, was driven to the bales by Kotoshoho's thrusts before a saving overarm throw; he called it a scrambled start but was relieved his body moved. Aonishiki, back at ozeki, forced out Kotoeiho, and Kotozakura forced out Takayasu, so all three ozeki won. Sekiwake Atamifuji, on an ozeki run, absorbed Gonoyama's charge, took a left outside grip and forced him out to a roar. New sekiwake Fujinokawa beat Yoshinofuji for the first time in six meetings — no more calling him a bad match-up, he said. New komusubi Hakunofuji lost, forced out by Minoumi. Lower down, the brothers Asasuiryu and Asakoryu exchanged ceremonial water for the first time and both won, the debutant forcing out Chiyoshoma and his elder brother throwing Tobizaru; the other newcomer, Kotobukinofuji, fell to Tokihayate. Hoshoryu, Wakatakakage and Wakanokatsu are out from day one.
Makuuchi
20 bouts
湘南乃海Maegashira #17−12寄り切り38%vs62%
出羽ノ龍Juryo #1+12
寿之富士Maegashira #16−13掬い投げ55%vs45%
時疾風Maegashira #15+13
朝翠龍Maegashira #15+9.6寄り切り64%vs36%
千代翔馬Maegashira #14−9.6
朝紅龍Maegashira #13+9.8下手投げ68%vs32%
翔猿Maegashira #14−9.7
阿炎Maegashira #13−12突き落とし50%vs50%
朝白龍Maegashira #12+12
若元春Maegashira #11+11寄り切り69%vs31%
正代Maegashira #11−11
王鵬Maegashira #10−14寄り切り50%vs50%
金峰山Maegashira #10+14
宇良Maegashira #9+12送り倒し55%vs45%
獅司Maegashira #9−12
尊富士Maegashira #8+12突き落とし50%vs50%
平戸海Maegashira #8−12
藤青雲Maegashira #7+12寄り切り54%vs46%
錦富士Maegashira #7−12
朝乃山Maegashira #6+11寄り切り68%vs32%
一山本Maegashira #6−11
狼雅Maegashira #5−12引き落とし52%vs48%
欧勝馬Maegashira #5+12
隆の勝Maegashira #4+11送り出し44%vs56%
藤凌駕Maegashira #4−11
伯乃富士Komusubi−14寄り切り45%vs55%
美ノ海Maegashira #3+14
義ノ富士Maegashira #2−12寄り切り46%vs54%
藤ノ川Sekiwake+12
熱海富士Sekiwake+7.5寄り切り67%vs33%
豪ノ山Maegashira #3−7.5
安青錦Ozeki+6.0寄り切り79%vs21%
琴栄峰Maegashira #1−6.0
高安Maegashira #2−12寄り切り47%vs53%
琴櫻Ozeki+12
霧島Ozeki+5.7上手投げ71%vs29%
琴勝峰Maegashira #1−5.7
大の里Yokozuna+8.2叩き込み75%vs25%
大栄翔Komusubi−8.2
Win % = Glicko-2 expected score from each wrestler's latest rating. Shown for Juryo and above only — lower divisions have provisional ratings, so their predictions are unreliable. Bouts listed in fight order (main event last). Start times (~H:MM) are rough estimates based on the standard daily schedule and may shift with the day's pace. Green/red ± figures show the rating change from that bout — the bigger the upset, the bigger the number (provisional during the basho; new wrestlers can swing widely while their rating settles).